2004 Post-Election Poll

Election Day ’04 Recap: “Values Voters” and Security Moms helped push President Bush past 50%, as a Reverse Gender Gap emerges; “Iraq” voters heavily favor Kerry, “terrorism” voters supported Bush.

Washington, D.C. – According to an Election Night survey of 800 actual voters nationwide, President Bush’s historic win on Tuesday was due in large part to his support among values voters, mothers, and those most concerned about terrorism. Senator Kerry performed well among those who cited the “situation in Iraq” as their most important issue and traditional Democratic constituencies, including Blacks and single women.
More than three-quarters of voters had made a decision for President by Labor Day.  A full 78% said they knew whom they would support before September.  Only 22% needed extra insurance in October and November, a sharp contrast from the 36% of the 2000 electorate who were still undecided between George W. Bush and Al Gore after the conventions that year.   

As expected, concerns about Iraq and terrorism dominated voter concerns, followed by “morality and family values” as a sleeper issue.  A full 40% of the electorate focused most on the situation in Iraq (17%) or the war on terror (23%).  Difference in candidate support emerged between these voters, as those who believe the “war on terror” is most important voted for President Bush over Kerry (78%- 22%) and voters who cited “the situation in Iraq” supported John Kerry over President Bush (75%- 25%). 

Another 17% said “jobs/ the economy” was most important while “morality and family values” influenced 16% of the electorate, including 29% of 25-34 year olds.   Healthcare, including Medicare and prescription drugs, was mentioned by 7% of the electorate, including 9% of seniors.

The Values Voters: The strong presence of “values voters” in the 2004 Election, including those who were energized by ballot initiatives banning same sex marriages in their states, was also apparent in other questions posed in the survey
The religious faith of the two presidential candidates had a measurable impact on the election results, particularly among those who supported President Bush. Let Freedom Ring commissioned the polling company™, inc. to ask voters nationwide to rate, on a one-to-five scale, the relative importance of the religious faith of the man they chose for President in making their decision to do so.

Among those who cast a ballot for George W. Bush, over one-half (52%) reported that his religious faith was “very important” in their presidential selection, a figure that was three and one-half times greater than the number (15%) of John Kerry voters that said the same about the Senator’s faith.

An astonishing two-fifths (40%) of John Kerry supporters acknowledged that religious faith was a non-issue in their consideration for President, stating that it was “not at all important” in their decision to vote for him. In contrast, a scant 8% of those who voted for Bush said that the President’s faith mattered not to them.  

Bush supporters that were more likely to cite religious faith as being “very important” in their decision to vote for the President include:

• Those with household income of $30K a year or lower
• Pro-life voters
• South-Central US residents
• Protestants
• Those who attend religious services weekly
• Women

Interestingly, among Kerry voters, Blacks and Hispanics were much more likely than Whites to state the Senator’s religious faith as being “very important” in their decision to vote for him. 
Other Kerry voters who were more likely to cite his religious faith as being “very important” in their decision to vote for him included:

• Those who attend weekly services
• Pro-life voters
• Those with household income of $30K a year or lower
• Urban