A Slight Up-"Hill" Battle for Senator Clinton

February 24, 2005

Nearly one-half of America’s women would consider supporting her for U.S. President; she attracts traditional Democratic voters, but has little cross-over appeal. Comparable numbers would “definitely” vote for or against her.

Washington, D.C. – Amid speculation about a possible ’08 White House run, Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) garners ballot-box support among nearly one-half (49%) of American women, according to a new nationwide poll of 800 women conducted by the polling company™, inc/WomanTrend.

One-quarter (25%) of these adult women are Hillary loyalists, indicating that they would “definitely” vote for her regardless of other candidates vying for the top spot.

Still, nearly 3-in-10 American women are dead set against her, saying they would oppose a President Hillary no matter what. Only 7% remained undecided.

“While she is well-poised to be a serious White House contender in 2008, these data underscore the common observation that she is a polarizing figure,” observed Kellyanne Conway, President & CEO of the polling company™, inc./WomanTrend, noting that 73% if registered Democratic women leaned toward supporting Clinton, while the exact number – 73% - of registered Republican women rejected the idea. “Considering the deficit she can expect to have among male voters, her figures among women would need to improve for her to return to the White House, this time in the top spot.”

Mrs. Clinton mainly attracts women within the core constituencies of the Democratic Party, and has not yet managed to display the type of crossover appeal that traditionally wards off serious third party challenges and means eventual victory.

Among the survey highlights:

• Minority women were nearly twice as likely as white women to say they would consider casting a presidential vote for Hillary Clinton (75% of Blacks and 81% of Hispanics, compared to 41% of whites).
• A 20-point gap emerged between single women and married women with respect to an HRC presidency (62%-42%, respectively).
• Just about half (51%) of female Independents would consider a Clinton candidacy.
• “Blue state” women, e.g., those residing on the west coast or in the northeastern region of the U.S. were far more likely than “Red State” gals to support the former First Lady in a prospective bid for the White House.
• Female investors were more likely than non-investors to vote against Hillary. (49%-35%, respectively)

Groups of women more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton for President include:

• 18-29 year olds
• Urban residents
• Low-income households (less than $30,000 per year)
• Students 
• Unemployed
• Divorced or separated

Groups of women more likely to vote against Hillary Clinton for President include:

• White collar workers
• 55+ year olds
• Rural residents
• High-income households income ($70,000+ per year)
• College graduates
• Protestants

This survey of 800 American women nationwide was fielded February 17-20, 2005 and has a margin of error of +3.0%.  Margins of error are higher for subgroup analysis. The sample was drawn utilizing a Random Digit Dial (RDD), where phone numbers were generated by a computer to ensure that every household in the nation had an equal chance to be surveyed.